Cost support PVC lingers forward, the center of gr

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Cost support PVC lingered forward, and the focus shifted upward to challenge the 10000 yuan mark

in 2011, the contradiction between inflation expectations, frequent regulatory policies and economic recovery deepened and the game upgraded. How will the PVC price be interpreted? The author believes that the PVC price volatility is intensified, but the cost is strong, and the focus will move up further under the support

the electricity price may be increased, and the cost support is strong. In calcium carbide PVC, the cost of calcium carbide accounts for a large proportion, accounting for about 70%-75%. By the end of 2010, nearly 80% of China's PVC production capacity was expected to be achieved by calcium carbide method, which is expected to be weak in the domestic mineral market in a short time, and the proportion of ethylene method was reduced to 20%. By comparing the expansion of calcium carbide production capacity and PVC production capacity, the author finds that part of the reason for the low PVC operating rate is the limitation of calcium carbide supply. We believe that the supply of calcium carbide will continue to be tight in 2011, which will lead to the upward fluctuation of calcium carbide price

in PVC carbide production process, the cost of electricity price accounts for a large proportion, and the high coal price in 2011 will further accelerate the rise of electricity price. The latest energy market analysis shows that the demand for coal in emerging markets continues to be strong. According to the data of IHS McCloskey, the world's largest coal export port, the thermal coal in Newcastle, Australia, and the coal price in Richards Bay, South Africa have climbed to the highest since October 2008. It is estimated that the coal import volume of China and India alone may increase by 78% to 337million tons this year. This is likely to further push up the international coal price in the next two years

the output is highly scalable and the supply pressure is controllable. By 2010, China's total PVC production capacity will reach 20million tons, of which carbide process accounts for about 75%. There are 86 PVC production enterprises in stable production, with an average production capacity of 226000 tons/year. In 2010, the newly increased production capacity was about 3.5 million tons, all of which were carbide process, concentrated in the central and western regions. In 2011, the newly put PVC production capacity was 1.53 million tons, far lower than the new demand. However, due to the large capacity base of PVC and the current operating rate of only 50%-60%, the overall overcapacity problem will still plague the PVC industry in 2011

according to the data of China Chlor Alkali Industry Association, the national PVC production capacity increased by 5.635 million tons/year in 2011, an increase of 25.2% compared with 4.585 million tons/year in 2010. The new capacity is still large. However, from the perspective of the capacity utilization rate of PVC, it is unlikely that the supply pressure of PVC daily growth will burst intensively

demand growth or slowdown. The policy orientation of the contraction of the real estate industry in 2011 will not change, but the lagging demand effect on related industries caused by its rapid growth in 2010 will be reflected in 2011. In addition, the growth brought by the real estate industry to downstream industries in 2011 also includes the construction of affordable housing. According to the data of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the construction scale of national affordable housing projects may reach 10million units in 2011, an increase of 72.4% compared with 5.8 million units in 2010

among PVC downstream products in 2010, the year-on-year growth rate of the output of plastic pipes and profiles increased significantly in the second half of the year as expected. Since the year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment slowed down after the second half of the year, it is expected that the output of PVC downstream products will remain stable in 2011, and it is difficult to form a strong support for the demand for PVC. In the second half of 2011, under the influence of traditional seasonal factors, the demand for PVC will increase, but based on the reduction of real estate investment, the year-on-year growth rate may be slowed down by Lenovo microcomputer

in general, coal prices are high, calcium carbide is easy to rise but difficult to fall, excess capacity is difficult to release in a centralized way, and PVC prices will fluctuate in a wide range. However, the expectation of cost support such as calcium carbide, coal, transportation and electricity price increase may push PVC to challenge the 10000 yuan mark

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